8 Takeaways From BAFTA Winners: From Mikey Madison’s Surprise Best Actress Win to ‘Conclave’ and ‘A Real Pain’ Beating ‘Anora’ – Variety
Source: Variety
Spoiler alert: The crazy, unpredictable Oscar season? Still crazy. Still unpredictable.
Fresh off a one-two punch weekend where “Anora” cleaned up at the PGA and DGA Awards, the BAFTAs decided to stir the pot with their own take on the race. If history tells us anything, it’s that BAFTA can be either a crystal ball or a red herring.
In 2024, every BAFTA winner (except for visual effects) went on to win the Oscar, making it the most predictive year in recent memory. The year before, however, BAFTA charted its own path — only “Everything Everywhere All at Once” editor Paul Rogers repeated at the Oscars. So, with the final Oscar voting closing on Tuesday, Feb. 18, let’s break down the key takeaways from BAFTA’s curveballs and what they could mean for Hollywood’s biggest night.
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Can “Conclave” pull off the best picture upset?
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Edward Berger’s “Conclave” emerged as the BAFTA champ, taking home best film, adapted screenplay (Peter Straughan), editing (Nick Emerson) and outstanding British film. Suddenly, this religious thriller is looking like the only serious challenger to “Anora.”
But here’s the rub: “Conclave” lacks a director nomination at the Oscars, which is historically a major hurdle. Its best shot? A 2012 “Argo”-style victory, where it wins screenplay, editing and picture. It’s not impossible, but it’s still a bit tough. There’s also this quirky Ralph Fiennes stat that I’ve become obsessed with: Every time he’s been nominated for an Oscar, his film has won best picture (1993’s “Schindler’s List” and 1996’s “The English Patient”). Added to his role in “The Hurt Locker” (2009), he’s currently in a 19-way tie for appearing in the most best picture winners with three. If “Conclave” wins, Fiennes would set a record, becoming the only actor with credited roles in four.
However, “Anora” boasts a nearly unbeatable combination of DGA, PGA, Critics Choice and WGA wins—a foursome that has only failed to convert once in Oscar history (sorry, “Brokeback Mountain”).
So, does BAFTA signal a “Conclave” coup? Or is this just another case of Brits voting British before Hollywood does its own thing?
Across the pond, BAFTA delivered a stunner — Mikey Madison upset the heavily favored Demi Moore to win leading actress for her titular role in Sean Baker’s dramedy “Anora.”
This makes Madison, at 25, the youngest winner since Scarlett Johansson’s “Lost in Translation” won in 2003 at age 19. But what does this mean for Oscar night? Three scenarios:
Notably, a single acting win for best actress hasn’t paired with best picture, director and screenplay since Diane Keaton for “Annie Hall” (1977), coincidentally, the last time all five best actress nominees were from best picture nominees.
The bottom line is Madison’s win keeps things spicy.
Kieran Culkin’s supporting actor win for “A Real Pain” was expected, but the real shocker? “Anora” lost in original screenplay — and not to Critics Choice champ “The Substance,” but to Jesse Eisenberg’s film.
Here’s why this matters: Three different major precursors (BAFTA, Critics Choice, WGA) have awarded three different films. Historically, when this kind of chaos happens, best picture becomes the tiebreaker.
This echoes past splits, like when “CODA” beat “The Power of the Dog” at BAFTA or “Manchester by the Sea” surprised “La La Land” in 2016.
Are Brody, Culkin and Saldaña Locked for Oscar Wins?
After winning a Golden Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA, Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) seem like sure things.
If any of them take SAG, only one actor has lost the Oscar after sweeping all four major televised awards (Russell Crowe for “A Beautiful Mind”). But SAG’s preferences can sometimes tilt towards populist favorites (“Wicked” and “A Complete Unknown” are the most nominated films at SAG).
Historically, at least one of the top two most-nominated SAG films wins something. That could be bad news for “A Complete Unknown” unless Timothée Chalamet sneaks in or “Wicked” can bring it home for the ensemble or Ariana Grande.
On paper, Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) looks like a real contender after winning the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. But funny enough, history isn’t on his side. No director has won the Oscar with just a BAFTA and Globe win, and without the film winning any of the five other precursors.
Meanwhile, Sean Baker (“Anora”) has been DGA and WGA-winning and has the strongest best picture contender in stats. So, unless we’re in for a Mike Nichols-style win, where Baker takes director solely, while his film loses best picture (see: 1967
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