PSG vs Inter: Opta Supercomputer Champions League Final Prediction – Opta Analyst
Source: Theanalyst.com
It’s time for the
grand finale. As PSG and
Inter
prepare to face off in Munich, we look ahead to Saturday’s huge
game with our UEFA Champions League final prediction and
preview.
The eyes of the footballing world will be on the Allianz Arena
in Munich on Saturday as Paris
Saint-Germain and Inter
Milan go head-to-head for European glory.
Both have been Champions League runners-up in the last five
years: PSG lost to Bayern Munich in 2020, while Inter were defeated
by Manchester City in 2023.
Many were hoping for a thrill-a-minute clash between PSG and
Barcelona,
but this encounter still promises to be a thriller given the role
Inter played in their exciting semi-final with Hansi Flick’s
side.
PSG have arguably been Europe’s best performers this season.
Luis Enrique’s team are in the hunt for a treble, having won the
Ligue 1
title while they also claimed the Coupe de France last weekend.
Of teams in Europe’s top five leagues, only Barcelona (174) have
scored more goals across all competitions than PSG (147), and it is
only the Blaugrana who can boast a higher expected
goals (xG) figure over the course of the 2024-25 campaign
(145.3 to PSG’s 142.5).
PSG top the charts for shots (1,074), shots on target (450) and
big chances (280), while Manchester City (2,239) are the only team
to have had more touches in the opposition box than the Parisians
(2,207).
Luis Enrique won the Champions League with Barcelona in 2015,
and is looking to become the sixth manager to win the trophy with
two different clubs, along with Carlo Ancelotti (Milan, Real
Madrid), Ottmar Hitzfeld (Borussia Dortmund, Bayern), Jupp Heynckes
(Real Madrid, Bayern Munich), José Mourinho (Porto and Inter) and
Pep Guardiola (Barcelona and Man City).
Indeed, that success with Barça a decade ago came as part of a
treble, and Luis Enrique could become just the second coach, after
Guardiola, to win a treble made up of the Champions League, a major
domestic trophy and league title, with two different teams.
A good omen for PSG? When their Spanish coach won the treble 10
years ago, his Barça team beat an Italian side (Juventus) in the
final.
This season has seen PSG both win their most games (10) and
score their most goals (33) in a single major European campaign,
though there are of course now more games in the competition since
its revamp this season, with PSG having to compete in a two-legged
knockout play-off against Brest following a slightly bumpy expanded
league phase.
They have also registered their most shots per game (18.6) in a
Champions League season since 2003-04, when Opta began recording
such data.
But as they proved in their thrilling semi-final victory over
Barça, Inter are no pushovers.
Simone Inzaghi might have let the shackles off in those two legs
against their La Liga opponents, but Inter’s success in the
Champions League this term has largely been built on solid
foundations. They have kept eight clean sheets, more than any other
team, conceding only 11 goals (including one own goal), six of
which came across that two-legged semi-final.
Integral to their defensive solidity has been the performances
of goalkeeper Yann
Sommer.
Based on the quality of shots on target faced (using
xGOT), Sommer has prevented more goals than any other
goalkeeper in the Champions League this season (+5.9 – 10 goals
conceded from 15.9 xG on target faced, excluding own goals).
Sommer leads the way in the Champions League this season of
goalkeepers for clean sheets (seven). Only Thibaut Courtois (52)
and Emiliano Martínez (49) have registered more saves in the
competition this season than the Switzerland international
(48).
Their goalkeeper’s reliability has certainly been a crucial
factor for Inter, who have conceded a tournament-high 214 shots.
That said, their 17.3 expected goals against shows they are, in the
main, giving up low-quality opportunities. Indeed, the average xG
of the shots Inter have faced is just 0.08.
Ahead of Sommer, veteran campaigner Francesco
Acerbi has more than played his part.
Acerbi – who scored Inter’s crucial late equaliser in the
semi-final against Barcelona – could be the fourth-oldest outfield
player to start a Champions League final (37 years, 110 days),
behind Paolo Maldini for Milan in 2007 (38 years, 331 days), Lothar
Matthäus for Bayern in 1999 (38 years, 66 days) and Ryan Giggs for
Manchester United in 2011 (37 years, 180 days).
Then there is flying wing-back Denzel
Dumfries, who was directly involved in five goals across the
semi-final legs against Barça (two goals, three assists), as many
goal contributions as in his 51 previous appearances in Europe.
Experience has been key for Inzaghi. Only Atlético Madrid
(43.5%) have handed a higher share of minutes to players aged 30+
in the Champions League this season than Inter (43.3%), whose 6,151
collective minutes by players aged 30+ is the most by a team since
Juventus in 2016-17 (6,186). All of the 1,350 minutes PSG have
given to players aged 30 or over have been accounted for
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